Murphy’s Law: Entropy in Systems, Start-ups, and Supply Chains

“In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” - Dwight D. Eisenhower

Murphy’s Law states: “If anything can go wrong, it will.” At first, it sounds like pessimism dressed as humour. In practice, it’s a useful lens for understanding how order gradually slips into disorder unless managed with care. In systems thinking, this drift is called entropy - the natural tendency of things to unravel over time.

In physics, entropy describes the natural drift from order to disorder. Think of a tidy room that gathers dust or a block of ice that melts into water. Without effort, systems don’t become more organized - they unravel.

The same holds true in business. A process that once felt seamless grows clunky as more people touch it. A supply chain that runs like clockwork falters as more links are added. A team that was once tightly aligned begins to scatter its energy as new priorities compete for attention. Entropy, in this context, is not failure; it is the tax businesses pay for time, scale, and complexity.

One way to picture it is as a garden. In the beginning, freshly planted, it looks perfect - neat rows, flourishing plants, and everything in balance. But give it time without care, and weeds creep in. Paths become overgrown, and the original order becomes hard to see. Entropy is those weeds. And just like a gardener, a business must constantly tend to its systems if it wants to maintain order.

Whether in technology, start-ups, or supply chains, entropy is not a remote threat; it’s always present. Small inefficiencies pile up. Unexpected cracks appear. Strong leaders don’t see disorder as failure, but as a constant to anticipate, design for, and recover from - steadily, methodically, and with accountability.

Entropy in Systems: Stability Has a Half-Life

Every system begins in order, but over time, friction sets in. Processes are bent around urgent needs. Documentation falls behind. Workarounds become permanent fixes. Entropy rarely announces itself with a dramatic collapse - more often, it shows up as small, persistent flaws: a delayed report, recurring error, or patch that breaks something else.

The lesson is not to expect perfection, but to normalize imperfection. The answer lies in auditing, stress-testing, and designing for recovery rather than permanence. Transparency and discipline transform disorder into manageable risk.

Start-ups: Entropy on Fast-Forward

If systems decay slowly, start-ups experience it in fast motion. Every new hire, feature, or pivot multiplies complexity. Roadmaps shift weekly. Culture is still forming. Resources are stretched.

For founders, Murphy’s Law often feels personal: the demo that fails during an investor meeting, the server outage on launch day. These are not exceptions; they are the price of rapid growth.

The start-ups that last are the ones that manage entropy directly. They budget for rework, acknowledge cracks early, and avoid single points of failure. Growth guarantees disorder; resilience depends on how well it’s absorbed.

Supply Chains: Where Murphy Finds Scale

Supply chains make entropy visible. A late truck or mislabelled shipment can ripple across warehouses, retailers, and customers. The larger and more global the network, the more points Murphy has to exploit.

The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami exposed this at scale. After the devastating earthquake and tsunami, Toyota’s supply chain was pushed to the edge. Production lines worldwide stalled because even small but essential components, like microchips, became suddenly unavailable.

What distinguished Toyota wasn’t immunity from entropy but its response. The company undertook a massive supplier-mapping initiative, tracing vulnerabilities across multiple tiers of suppliers - not just the obvious ones but down to the third and fourth levels. This deep visibility allowed Toyota to identify weak links and build more resilience into its network.

By turning the crisis into insight, Toyota didn’t just recover, it emerged more prepared than before. The lesson is clear: disruption cannot be avoided, but it can be transformed into capability if leaders are willing to look beyond the immediate fix.

From Disorder to Discipline: A Strategic Response

Murphy’s Law cannot be eliminated, but it can be managed. Resilient organizations follow three principles:

Anticipate failure early Assume things will break. Plan for worst-case scenarios so surprises don’t turn into crises.

Design for recovery, not perfection Perfect systems assume stability and are brittle. Recovery-oriented systems expect disruption and focus on returning to balance quickly.

Balance efficiency with resilience Efficiency trims buffers; resilience preserves them where they matter most. Durability comes from knowing when redundancy adds strength versus unnecessary cost.

Entropy as an Invisible Cost

Disorder carries hidden costs: downtime, rework, misalignment, and eroded trust. They rarely appear on a balance sheet, but they accumulate. Ignoring them is a failure of oversight; managing them reflects discipline and integrity.

Acknowledging entropy is not cynicism. It’s realism. By recognizing drift, leaders can build organizations that endure, adapt, and perform consistently even under pressure.

Conclusion: Meeting Disorder With Readiness

Murphy’s Law is more than a clever saying; it’s a reminder that disorder is constant. Entropy ensures that every system drifts, every start-up faces strain, and every supply chain encounters disruption.

The true test of resilience is not avoiding disorder but responding to it effectively. Toyota’s 2011 recovery proves readiness is not theoretical - it can be built into culture, systems, and processes.

Leaders who plan with foresight, acknowledge entropy, and design for recovery don’t fear cracks in the system. They are prepared to close them, preserving trust, continuity, and long-term value.

Because in business, as in physics, entropy never rests. What matters is ensuring that when Murphy shows up, the system is ready.